KalshiCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
Claude 88.5%+20.0ptLeader of 9 outcomesVig-adjusted: raw venue quotes summed above 100% and were normalized.
Claude 88.5%+20.0ptMarket quality
44 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$565.9
Open interest
$5.5K
Medium open interestSpread
23.0 pt
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 15 minutes ago
Sep 30, 26, 5:30 PM UTCOct 31, 26, 2:00 PM UTC
Trends
Venue terms
Source: Kalshi
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 30m (informational)
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Top Coding AI this week
KalshiTop coding AI this month (DeepSWE)
KalshiAt the end of 2026 will there be any European model that ranks higher than Mistral Medium 3.5 on arena.ai agent arena?
Manifold MarketsWill any European model listed on arena.ai agent arena have a higher score than Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview by end 2026?
Manifold MarketsWhich lab will have the #1 model on the arena.ai Text leaderboard on October 31, 2026?
Manifold MarketsWho will have the top model on arena.ai Agent Arena accessible through a <$20/mo subscription on November 1st 2026?
Manifold MarketsRules
If Claude is the #1 model on LM Code Arena Leaderboard on Oct 31, 2026 at 10:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:LMArena Code
- Tied rankings shall be resolved using the publisher's official tie-breaking methodology; if none exists, all tied entities share the highest rank among them. If multiple candidates are tied for a given rank, then their Contracts will resolve to $1/(the number of candidates tied), rounded down. Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Governing League. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.
Rules for each outcome
- Claude
- If Claude is the #1 model on LM Code Arena Leaderboard on Oct 31, 2026 at 10:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Gemini
- If Gemini is the #1 model on LM Code Arena Leaderboard on Oct 31, 2026 at 10:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
- ChatGPT
- If ChatGPT is the #1 model on LM Code Arena Leaderboard on Oct 31, 2026 at 10:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Qwen
- If Qwen is the #1 model on LM Code Arena Leaderboard on Oct 31, 2026 at 10:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Grok
- If Grok is the #1 model on LM Code Arena Leaderboard on Oct 31, 2026 at 10:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Dola
- If Dola is the #1 model on LM Code Arena Leaderboard on Oct 31, 2026 at 10:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
- GLM
- If GLM is the #1 model on LM Code Arena Leaderboard on Oct 31, 2026 at 10:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Kimi
- If Kimi is the #1 model on LM Code Arena Leaderboard on Oct 31, 2026 at 10:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
- MiniMax
- If MiniMax is the #1 model on LM Code Arena Leaderboard on Oct 31, 2026 at 10:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
