Will any European model listed on arena.ai agent arena have a higher score than Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview by end 2026?

Frequently asked questions

What are the current odds for Will any European model listed on arena.ai agent arena have a higher score than Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview by end 2026??

Manifold Markets prices No at 56.9% as of October 3, 2026.

When does Will any European model listed on arena.ai agent arena have a higher score than Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview by end 2026? resolve?

Will any European model listed on arena.ai agent arena have a higher score than Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview by end 2026? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.

How is Will any European model listed on arena.ai agent arena have a higher score than Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview by end 2026? settled?

Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves YES if I see a European model (model by a company primarily headquartered / operating in Europe; Mistral counts, DeepMind doesn't) on arena.ai by the end of 2026 and it has a higher score than Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview, sorted by net improvement.

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POLYMARKET

Anthropic announces bankruptcy by which date?

• 2029+1.0pt22%
• 2028+3.0pt19%
• 2027+5.0pt11%

Total Vol

$1.2M

24h Vol

$1.1M

POLYMARKET

Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?

• Anthropic+1.6pt58%
• SpaceX-1.0pt41%
• OpenAI-0.1pt1%

+9 more outcomes

POLYMARKET

Which company has the best AI model end of October?

• Google+3.6pt63.7%
• Anthropic-2.0pt35.3%
• OpenAI+0.2pt1%

+18 more outcomes

POLYMARKET

OpenAI announces bankruptcy by which date?

• 202920%
• 2028-1.0pt16%
• 2027+4.0pt11%

Total Vol

KALSHI

Best AI at the end of 2026?

• Claude+0.2pt48.6%
• Gemini+1.6pt35.5%
• ChatGPT-1.4pt8.4%

+5 more outcomes

Total Vol

$13.5M

KALSHI

DeepSeek market share this week

• Above 22.0%+10.0pt25%
• Above 23.0%-2.0pt2%
• Above 25.5%2%

+6 more outcomes

Total Vol

$202K

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• When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
• Time's Person of the Year for 2026
• Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
• Next Sonnet Model: Text Arena Debut?
• GPT Astra 6.1+ released by which date?
• Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
• OpenAI market share this week
• Best AI in Oct 2026?
• Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
• Anthropic IPO by which date?