KalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedThis market resolved: Above 70 (99%)
Resolved: Oct 8, 2026, 3:26 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 8, 2026, 2:10 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Probability Timeline
Above 902%
Above 1301%
Above 7097%
Above 2502%
Above 70Won
Above 30Lost
Above 50Lost
Above 10Lost
Above 90Lost
Above 250Lost
Above 190Lost
Above 230Lost
Above 350Lost
Above 110Lost
Above 300Lost
Above 130Lost
Above 280Lost
Above 150Lost
Above 170Lost
Above 210Lost
Above 270Lost
Above 290Lost
Above 310Lost
Above 320Lost
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Rules
Archived event-level rules. The exact terms for each outcome are no longer available.
If the Carbon Arc Gemini App Downloads (September 2026) for September 2026 is the named outcome , then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:Carbon Arc
- For purposes of this market, determination will resolve on the first value reported by Carbon Arc.
- Corrections or revisions made after the market has been settled will not affect the outcome.
- The index measures year-over-year, where 100 means Gemini App Downloads was equal to the same month last year.
- Values above 100 indicate growth and values below 100 indicate decline: for example, 103 = 3% growth, 97 = 3% decline from year prior.
- Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the underlying company.