KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataRoughly calibratedCurrent implied probabilityBefore Oct 1, 2026 20%-3.0%Leader of 11 outcomes
Market quality
80 / 100
High quality24h Volume
$2.3K
Liquidity
$528K
High liquidityBid / Ask
18.0% / 19.0%
Spread
5.6%
Moderate spreadMarket data
Updated 15 minutes ago
Apr 1, 26, 2:00 PMOct 1, 26, 3:59 AM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Before Oct 1, 202620%
Large trades
$5.7k92.0%KALSHIBefore Sep 1, 2026 — No7d ago
KALSHIBefore Sep 1, 2026 — No7d agoVolume trend
$2.3kJul 221d of dataJul 22
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If Anthropic confirms an IPO before Jun 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- An IPO is confirmed if 1) the SEC declares the company's Form S-1 effective OR 2) the IPO is priced OR 3) a securities exchange has assigned a ticker to it.
- As long as any of those events occur, the market will immediately resolve to Yes, even if the company does not start trading until after Jun 1, 2026.
- If Anthropic confirms an IPO before Jul 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- As long as any of those events occur, the market will immediately resolve to Yes, even if the company does not start trading until after Jul 1, 2026.
- If Anthropic confirms an IPO before Aug 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.