Current implied probability
November 30 89%+1.5ptLeader of 7 outcomes
Market quality
70 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$5.1K
Liquidity
$44.6K
High liquiditySpread
1.0 pt
Tight spreadComments
17
7d Change
-22.0 pts
Market data
Updated 10 minutes ago
Dec 12, 25, 9:47 PM UTCDec 1, 26, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
0%
0%
0%
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Gemini 4 released in 2026?
Manifold MarketsBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiAI lab announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
PolymarketWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
PolymarketWhich company has best AI model end of 2026?
PolymarketWill ANOTHER millennium prize problem be solved in 2026?
Manifold MarketsRules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google's Gemini 4.0 Flash model is made available to the general public by the listed date.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- For this market to resolve to "Yes," Gemini 4.0 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups.
- A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
- The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public.
- Gemini 4.0 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 4.0 or one that is recognized as a successor to Gemini 3 similar to the progression from Gemini 2.0 to Gemini 3.
Open markets
AIKALSHIWhat will Trump say during The Ingraham Angle?
- Tariff99%
- AI / Artificial Intelligence99%
- Fake News99%
+24 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $109.6K
- 24h Vol
- $109.4K
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+6.2pt69.3%
- ChatGPT-6.4pt13.9%
- Gemini-0.4pt6.9%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $10.8M
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+1.5pt91%
- December 15,+4.5pt90%
- November 30,+5.5pt89%
+7 more outcomes
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+8.0pt89.4%
- Muse+1.0pt2.9%
- ChatGPT-9.0pt1.9%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $483K
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-64.6pt3%
- 1490+-39.9pt1%
- 1500+-25.4pt1%
+2 more outcomes
POLYMARKETAI lab announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- 2027-3.5pt85%
- 2026+5.5pt73%
- September 30, 2026-3.0pt39%
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- Which Millennium Prize Problem will AI solve next?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Anthropic market share this week
- DeepSeek market share this week
- Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by September 30?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Gemini 4.0 released by which date??
- Polymarket prices November 30 at 89% as of September 12, 2026.
- When does Gemini 4.0 released by which date? resolve?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date? is scheduled to resolve on December 1, 2026.
- How is Gemini 4.0 released by which date? settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google's Gemini 4.0 Flash model is made available to the general public by the listed date.