KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
Above 2.25% 95%Leader of 9 outcomes
Market quality
47 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$23.3K
Liquidity
$23.1K
Medium liquidityMarket data
Updated 7 minutes ago
Sep 8, 26, 1:00 PM UTCSep 14, 26, 3:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
PolymarketAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketWill Anthropic announce a solution to the Navier-Stokes Millennium problem before IPO?
Manifold MarketsAI solves Millennium Prize Problem in 2026?
Manifold MarketsAI solves Millennium Prize Problem in September 2026?
Manifold MarketsTop AI model in September?
KalshiRules
If Anthropic scores above 2.25% on OpenRouter text market share by model author week of Sep 8, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:OpenRouter - AI Market Share
- This event will resolve based on 10:00AM ET Monday updated values for the week of Sep 8, 2026.
- If the named model author’s market share is not separately identified in the source chart, including if it is included in “Others,” all markets in the event will resolve to No. Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the governing benchmark.
- All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.
- If Anthropic scores above 2.45% on OpenRouter text market share by model author week of Sep 8, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Open markets
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028-6.0pt63.4%
- 2027-12.5pt29.7%
- 2026-2.5pt6.9%
- Total Vol
- $262.9K
- 24h Vol
- $176.7K
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+2.0pt89%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,+0.5pt85%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-2.3pt57.7%
- ChatGPT+1.4pt26.9%
- Grok-2.4pt5.8%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $10.6M
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+6.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-max+7.0pt9%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027+5.0pt97%
- Before Jan 1, 2027+5.0pt96%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-1.0pt94%
+9 more outcomes
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+5.0pt79.6%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt11.1%
- Gemini2.8%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $405.1K
- 24h Vol
- OpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Tencent market share this week
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- OpenAI market share this week
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- DeepSeek market share this week
- Will Anthropic announce a Millennium Prize solution?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Anthropic market share this week?
- Kalshi prices Above 2.25% at 95% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does Anthropic market share this week resolve?
- Anthropic market share this week is scheduled to resolve on September 14, 2026.
- How is Anthropic market share this week settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If Anthropic scores above 2.25% on OpenRouter text market share by model author week of Sep 8, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.