KalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedThis market resolved: Above 2.45% (95%)
Resolved: Sep 14, 2026, 2:30 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Sep 14, 2026, 10:05 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Probability Timeline
Above 2.85%2%
Above 2.75%6%
Above 2.6%14%
Above 2.45%81%
Above 2.25%Lost
Above 2.45%Won
Above 2.6%Lost
Above 2.85%Lost
Above 2.75%Lost
Above 3.1%Lost
Above 2.95%Lost
Above 3.25%Lost
Above 3.45%Lost
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Rules
Archived event-level rules. The exact terms for each outcome are no longer available.
If Anthropic scores above 2.25% on OpenRouter text market share by model author week of Sep 8, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:OpenRouter - AI Market Share
- This event will resolve based on 10:00AM ET Monday updated values for the week of Sep 8, 2026.
- If the named model author’s market share is not separately identified in the source chart, including if it is included in “Others,” all markets in the event will resolve to No. Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the governing benchmark.
- All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.
- If Anthropic scores above 2.45% on OpenRouter text market share by model author week of Sep 8, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.