KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
Above 19.8% 99%Leader of 9 outcomes
Market quality
70 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$17.4K
Liquidity
$17K
Medium liquiditySpread
1.0 pt
Tight spreadMarket data
Updated 10 minutes ago
Sep 8, 26, 1:00 PM UTCSep 14, 26, 3:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will OpenAI share an official framework for disclosing misalignment incidents by the end of October 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
PolymarketAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketWill Anthropic announce a solution to the Navier-Stokes Millennium problem before IPO?
Manifold MarketsAI solves Millennium Prize Problem in 2026?
Manifold MarketsBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiRules
If OpenAI scores above 18.7% on OpenRouter text market share by model author week of Sep 8, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:OpenRouter - AI Market Share
- This event will resolve based on 10:00AM ET Monday updated values for the week of Sep 8, 2026.
- If the named model author’s market share is not separately identified in the source chart, including if it is included in “Others,” all markets in the event will resolve to No. Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the governing benchmark.
- All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.
- If OpenAI scores above 19.8% on OpenRouter text market share by model author week of Sep 8, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Open markets
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+8.0pt56.5%
- 2027+3.5pt33.3%
- 2026+4.0pt10.2%
- Total Vol
- $261.2K
- 24h Vol
- $186.6K
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+4.0pt73%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-5-max+4.0pt5%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+3.0pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,-1.0pt84%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt13.1%
- Gemini-3.0pt1.9%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $401K
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+4.4pt62.4%
- ChatGPT-1.2pt23.8%
- Grok-2.6pt5.9%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $10.6M
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-8.0pt63%
- 1490+-8.5pt54%
- 1500+-0.5pt28%
+2 more outcomes
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for OpenAI market share this week?
- Kalshi prices Above 19.8% at 99% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does OpenAI market share this week resolve?
- OpenAI market share this week is scheduled to resolve on September 14, 2026.
- How is OpenAI market share this week settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If OpenAI scores above 18.7% on OpenRouter text market share by model author week of Sep 8, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.