KalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedThis market resolved: Claude (99%)
Resolved: Sep 30, 2026, 3:12 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Sep 30, 2026, 1:46 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Probability Timeline
Claude99%
Muse1%
ClaudeWon
GeminiLost
ChatGPTLost
GrokLost
MuseLost
QwenLost
KimiLost
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsRules
Archived event-level rules. The exact terms for each outcome are no longer available.
If Google has the top-ranked LLM on Sep 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:LMArena Leaderboard
- If two models are tied under Rank (UB), then the model with the highest Arena Score will win.
- If two models are still tied after that, then the model with the most votes will win.
- If two models are still tied after that, the model that was released earlier will win.
- If OpenAI has the top-ranked LLM on Sep 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If Anthropic has the top-ranked LLM on Sep 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.