KalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedThis market is closed and awaiting confirmed resolution.
Awaiting verified resolution
CoinRithm is waiting for provider-confirmed settlement before treating this market as resolved.
Current implied probability
Before Dec 1, 2026 18%Leader of 7 outcomes
Before Dec 1, 2026 18%Market quality
34 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Open interest
$24.7K
Medium open interestMarket data
Updated 16 minutes ago
Aug 10, 26, 11:45 PM UTCSep 1, 26, 3:59 AM UTC
Trends
Before Dec 1, 202618%
Before Nov 16, 202614%
Before Nov 1, 20261%
Before Sep 1, 2026Lost
Before Oct 1, 2026Lost
Before Oct 16, 2026Awaiting result
Before Sep 16, 2026Lost
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
When will Anthropic release Mythos?
KalshiWhen will Anthropic release Claude 6?
KalshiWhen will Anthropic release a personal AI agent?
KalshiWill Anthropic release an open-weights model in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWhen will Anthropic release its next Claude Fable model (newer than Fable 5.1)?
Manifold MarketsWhich months will Google OR OpenAI OR Anthropic release a new LLM
Manifold MarketsRules
This outcome's exact rule is not available.
Settles via:Anthropic
- Release must be to the public, outside of a closed beta, though limiting it to a high-cost subscription tier is acceptable.
Rules for each outcome
- Before Dec 1, 2026
- If Anthropic releases Opus 6 before Dec 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Nov 16, 2026
- If Anthropic releases Opus 6 before Nov 16, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Sep 1, 2026
- If Anthropic releases Opus 6 before Sep 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Oct 1, 2026
- If Anthropic releases Opus 6 before Oct 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Oct 16, 2026
- If Anthropic releases Opus 6 before Oct 16, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Sep 16, 2026
- If Anthropic releases Opus 6 before Sep 16, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Nov 1, 2026
- If Anthropic releases Opus 6 before Nov 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
