KalshiCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedSelected book midpoint
Before Jan 1, 2027 · —
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Stored price
Before Jan 1, 2027 18.5%Leader of 4 outcomes
Before Jan 1, 2027 18.5%Market quality
40 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$1.1K
Open interest
$9.8K
Medium open interestBid / Ask
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Before Jan 1, 2027Spread
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Market data
Updated 55 minutes ago
LaggingSep 24, 26, 2:00 AM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
Before Oct 1, 2026Lost
Before Nov 1, 2026Lost
Venue terms
Source: Kalshi
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 30m (informational)
Market depth · Before Jan 1, 2027
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Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
When will OpenAI release a personal AI agent?
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Manifold MarketsWhich months will Google OR OpenAI OR Anthropic release a new LLM
Manifold MarketsRules
If an Anthropic product has implemented a general-purpose personal AI agent that remembers the user and starts multi-step tasks across third-party apps on its own before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:AnthropicTechCrunchThe VergeArs TechnicaWiredReutersBloomberg TechnologyThe InformationThe Wall Street Journal Technology sectionVentureBeatEngadgetThe New York Times Technology sectionAssociated Press Technology coverageAxios Technology newsletterPolitico Technology coverage
- The function must be live and processing user interactions, not explicitly labeled as "beta," "test," "experimental," "preview," or "early access" or similar, and officially acknowledged by the company through announcements, documentation, or help pages. Implementation includes direct integration into the product's interface, automatic application to user accounts, user-initiated activation through official controls, API implementation, or policy changes that operationally enforce the function. Announcements without deployment, employee-only testing, technical documentation without implementation, and third-party additions without authorization do not qualify. The implementation must occur in the United States unless otherwise specified. If it meets these conditions, it counts from the first date it is live for users outside the company, including in a gradual rollout or a waitlist, invitation-only, or paid-tier release. A general-purpose personal AI agent acts for an individual user on that user's own goals, is not limited to a single category of task or app, such as only code, only documents, or only shopping, and (1) retains user-specific information, such as preferences, relationships, goals, or ongoing activities, across separate interactions, and (2) as a built-in capability, on its own initiative and outside any conversation or task the user has started, begins new multi-step actions across third-party apps, websites, or services to advance the user's ongoing goals, based on what it has retained. The agent must itself take at least one such action before asking the user anything, and may then pause for approval before a step such as sending a message or making a purchase. An action means changing something in a third-party app, website, or service on the user's behalf, such as sending, posting, booking, purchasing, submitting a form, or creating, editing, or deleting an item; reading, searching, or summarizing does not count. An agent focused on work qualifies if it acts across email, calendar, messaging, and the web for an individual user. The following do not qualify: carrying out a task the user started, however long-running; running tasks on a user-defined schedule, event trigger, or monitor, or under a standing instruction that tells the agent what to do or which app, source, or workflow to watch; a briefing or notification on its own; a proposed task or suggestion that does nothing until the user accepts it; an offer made in reply to the user's message; memory alone; an agent configured by an organization to run shared team workflows; and a developer platform, SDK, or API for building agents, unless the company itself offers through it an agent that meets (1) and (2) for end users. A goal or preference the user has shared, from which the agent itself decides what new task to start, is not a standing instruction, and neither is turning the capability on, connecting apps, or granting permissions.
Rules for each outcome
- Before Jan 1, 2027
- If an Anthropic product has implemented a general-purpose personal AI agent that remembers the user and starts multi-step tasks across third-party apps on its own before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Dec 1, 2026
- If an Anthropic product has implemented a general-purpose personal AI agent that remembers the user and starts multi-step tasks across third-party apps on its own before Dec 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Oct 1, 2026
- If an Anthropic product has implemented a general-purpose personal AI agent that remembers the user and starts multi-step tasks across third-party apps on its own before Oct 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Nov 1, 2026
- If an Anthropic product has implemented a general-purpose personal AI agent that remembers the user and starts multi-step tasks across third-party apps on its own before Nov 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
