Current community forecast
September 2025 100%Leader of 15 outcomes
Forecasters
26
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 3 hours ago
StaleSep 16, 25, 3:36 AM UTCNov 30, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Anthropic release a new Claude Fable model before October 26, 2026?
Manifold MarketsWhen will Anthropic release Mythos?
KalshiClaude Fable 5.2+ (Anthropic) release date
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Manifold MarketsWhen will Anthropic release a personal AI agent?
KalshiWhen will Anthropic release its next Claude Fable model (newer than Fable 5.1)?
Manifold MarketsRules
Resolution criteria
- Each month option resolves YES if, during that calendar month (UTC), at least one of Google, OpenAI, or Anthropic makes a new large language model (LLM) publicly available beyond a private waitlist in any of: their consumer apps (Gemini/ChatGPT/Claude) or developer platforms/APIs (OpenAI API, Google AI Studio/Vertex AI, Anthropic API/AWS Bedrock/Vertex AI). “Publicly available” includes GA or an open preview accessible without individual approval.
- If availability and announcement fall in different months, use the first month of broad availability.
- “New LLM” = a newly named model or sub‑variant with a distinct model identifier added to the company’s official model/catalog (e.g., Gemini 2.5 Flash‑Lite, Claude Sonnet 4, OpenAI o3/o4‑mini/GPT‑4.5).
- Routine snapshot updates, pricing/context changes, UI features, or pure renames do not count.
- Anonymous or cloaked models do not count - if a cloaked model such as Horizon Alpha were released in one month and a company publicly claims it in the next, this market would count that model as released in the second month.
