Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 24, 2026, 1:11 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastBefore 2027-02-16 98%Leader of 10 outcomes
Forecasters
70
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+0.7 pts
Market data
Updated 8 minutes ago
Sep 5, 26, 4:27 PM UTCFeb 16, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
What will Claude Fable's output token price hit in 2026?
PolymarketWhen will the next Claude Fable be released?
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Manifold MarketsWhat will Claude Fable 5 score on ARC-AGI-3?
Manifold MarketsWill any model at least as good as Claude Fable 5 and 10x cheaper be released by the end of March 2027?
Manifold MarketsClaude Fable 5.2+: Output Token Price Debut?
PolymarketRules
The '+' means any version at or above 5.2 counts: if Anthropic skips 5.2 and releases Claude Fable 5.3 or Fable 6, that still counts for the purpose of this market.
- Minor changes to the name, or other names for a model generally expected to be called Claude Fable 5.2, will also count.
- The model must be accessible without individual vetting or invitation — free or paid, via API or product.
- Open, non-selective waitlists count.
- Closed betas, invite-only access, researcher programs, A/B tests, and anonymous benchmark appearances do not.
- Country-level bans do not prevent resolution.
