Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastBefore 2027-02-16 98%Leader of 10 outcomes
Forecasters
71
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 12 hours ago
StaleSep 5, 26, 4:27 PM UTCFeb 16, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
When will Anthropic release its next Claude Fable model (newer than Fable 5.1)?
Manifold MarketsWhat will Claude Fable's output token price hit in 2026?
PolymarketNext Claude Fable released before Anthropic IPO?
Manifold MarketsWhen will the next Claude Fable be released?
Manifold MarketsWill the next Claude Fable be able to autonomously make a watchable movie?
Manifold MarketsClaude Fable 5.2+: Output Token Price Debut?
PolymarketRules
The '+' means any version at or above 5.2 counts: if Anthropic skips 5.2 and releases Claude Fable 5.3 or Fable 6, that still counts for the purpose of this market.
- Minor changes to the name, or other names for a model generally expected to be called Claude Fable 5.2, will also count.
- The model must be accessible without individual vetting or invitation — free or paid, via API or product.
- Open, non-selective waitlists count.
- Closed betas, invite-only access, researcher programs, A/B tests, and anonymous benchmark appearances do not.
- Country-level bans do not prevent resolution.
