Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 70.7%
Forecasters
19
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 11 hours ago
StaleOct 10, 26, 10:00 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 10:40 AM UTC
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketRules
I will be redoing https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/24RKHEkwgZ6Hm6ygY/can-an-llm-make-a-feature-length-movie-on-its-own with Fable 5.5 once it comes out.
- I will be using the 1920s novel We by Yevgeny Zamyatin as the source material and supplying the text.
- I have a variety of software tools in a pipeline set up for this, but I plan to otherwise just tell Fable to do it with no intervention besides telling it to keep working.
- I'll try to make a transcript to prove this was autonomous.
- Whatever the "final cut" looks like I will be uploading it to my YouTube channel (https://www.youtube.com/@joshuasnidercom) and sharing the link here.
- Will Fable's work be watchable? I will make a poll if it's ambiguous, but "watchable" is not intended to be a high quality bar.
