Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 76.6%
Forecasters
17
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 7 hours ago
StaleJun 12, 26, 7:23 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will any AI achieve a score of 25% on ARC-AGI-3 by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill any AI model score above 95% on ARC-AGI-2 by end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsClaude Fable 5.2+ (Anthropic) release date
Manifold MarketsWhat will Claude Fable's output token price hit in 2026?
PolymarketWhen will Anthropic release its next Claude Fable model (newer than Fable 5.1)?
Manifold MarketsWhat will be the highest score achieved on ARC-AGI-2 before 2027?
FutuurRules
Resolves to % equal to the verified score released for Claude Fable 5 for ARC-AGI-3 on https://arcprize.org/leaderboard.
- If they release multiple scores (e.g. “Low”, “High”, “Max”), this resolves to the highest score.
- If they release a “Mythos 5” score instead (with no expectation of releasing a separate Fable score) then will resolve to that.
- If they release separate Mythos 5 and Fable 5 scores, then this will resolve to the Fable score.
- Resolves “early” when the score is released, or N/A if they announce that they will never benchmark it for some reason.
