Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 72%
Forecasters
17
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 4 minutes ago
Jun 12, 26, 7:23 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will any AI achieve a score of 25% on ARC-AGI-3 by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill any AI model score above 95% on ARC-AGI-2 by end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsClaude Fable 5.2+ (Anthropic) release date
Manifold MarketsWhat will be the highest score achieved on ARC-AGI-2 before 2027?
FutuurBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketRules
Resolves to % equal to the verified score released for Claude Fable 5 for ARC-AGI-3 on https://arcprize.org/leaderboard.
- If they release multiple scores (e.g. “Low”, “High”, “Max”), this resolves to the highest score.
- If they release a “Mythos 5” score instead (with no expectation of releasing a separate Fable score) then will resolve to that.
- If they release separate Mythos 5 and Fable 5 scores, then this will resolve to the Fable score.
- Resolves “early” when the score is released, or N/A if they announce that they will never benchmark it for some reason.
Open markets
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $157.2K
- 24h Vol
- $119.4K
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+10.0pt60%
- 2027+2.0pt31.4%
- 2026+2.0pt8.6%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.7pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $10.6M
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-4.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $377.7K
- 24h Vol
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-2.5pt66%
- 1490+-9.0pt51%
- 1500+-3.5pt23%
+2 more outcomes
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for What will Claude Fable 5 score on ARC-AGI-3??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 72% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does What will Claude Fable 5 score on ARC-AGI-3? resolve?
- What will Claude Fable 5 score on ARC-AGI-3? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is What will Claude Fable 5 score on ARC-AGI-3? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves to % equal to the verified score released for Claude Fable 5 for ARC-AGI-3 on https://arcprize.org/leaderboard.