FutuurCheck availabilityVerified resolution dataData quality warningNo live quotes
Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current implied probability
Between 93.1% and 96.0% (inclusive) 72%Leader of 5 outcomes
Between 93.1% and 96.0% (inclusive) 72%Market quality
25 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$1.3K
Low liquidityTraders
14
Comments
0
Market data
Updated 1 minute ago
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Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsRules
This event predicts the highest verified score achieved on the ARC-AGI-2 benchmark (Semi-Private Evaluation Set) by any AI system, as reported on the official ARC Prize leaderboard, at any time before January 1, 2027, 00:00:00 UTC.
- Each listed market below corresponds to one mutually exclusive percentage range of the maximum score; exactly one market will resolve "Yes".
- The Primary Designated Source is the ARC Prize official leaderboard (arcprize.org/leaderboard), specifically the highest verified ARC-AGI-2 semi-private-set score listed at any time before January 1, 2027, 00:00:00 UTC.
- Only scores that ARC Prize publicly verifies (i.e., submitted, evaluated, and listed on the leaderboard) count.
- Self-reported, unverified, or test-set results that have not been validated by the ARC Prize do not count.
- Markets whose ranges have been exceeded by a qualifying score may resolve "No" before the deadline.