Current community forecast
Yes 69%
Yes 69%Forecasters
98
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 2 hours ago
StaleOct 4, 24, 11:38 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will the ARC AGI Grand Prize be claimed before January 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill the ARC-AGI grand prize be claimed by end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the ARC-AGI grand prize be claimed by end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the ARC-AGI grand prize be claimed by an LLM?
Manifold MarketsWhat will be the highest score achieved on ARC-AGI-2 before 2027?
FutuurBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiRules
ARC‑AGI was introduced in 2019 as a grid‑based reasoning benchmark (“v1”) designed to test whether AI systems can infer novel rules from a few examples rather than rely on pattern memorization.
- Open‑source solvers plateaued near 53 % accuracy, while a high‑compute run of OpenAI’s o3‑preview model achieved roughly 75–88 %, indicating that v1 was largely saturated.
- To raise the bar, the ARC Prize Foundation unveiled the harder, human‑validated “ARC‑AGI‑2” (v2) on 24 March 2025 and opened a Kaggle contest capped at about US $0.42 of compute per task.
- The headline rule remains: the first fully open‑source system to reach ≥ 85 % on the private v2 set wins the $1 million Grand Prize.
- Resolution Criteria
- The market resolves YES if before January 1, 2027 the ARC Prize Foundation publicly announces and awards any portion of the $1 million Grand Prize to one or more teams.
