Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 54.7%
Forecasters
61
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 21 hours ago
StaleSep 16, 24, 7:43 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 10:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will the ARC AGI Grand Prize be claimed before January 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill the ARC-AGI grand prize be claimed by end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the ARC AGI Grand Prize be claimed before January 2027?
Manifold MarketsIn what year will the ARC AGI Grand Prize be claimed?
Manifold MarketsWhat will be the highest score achieved on ARC-AGI-2 before 2027?
FutuurWho is Dwarkesh's upcoming "biggest guest yet"?
Manifold MarketsRules
https://arcprize.org/leaderboard Achieve a performance of 85% or higher on the private set of Chollet's Abstraction and Reasoning Corpus (ARC), a challenging benchmark designed to test an AI's ability to solve abstract reasoning tasks with minimal prior knowledge.
- Even if the requirements for the grand prize change in 2025, this benchmark of >=85% performance will remain unchanged.
- Learn more about the competition here: https://arcprize.org/competition.
- 2025 version https://manifold.markets/JacobPfau/will-the-arcagi-grand-prize-be-clai-srb6t2awj1
- 2024 version https://manifold.markets/JacobPfau/will-the-arcagi-grand-prize-be-clai
