In what year will the ARC AGI Grand Prize be claimed?
AI
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
2025-2026 50.9%Leader of 4 outcomes
2025-2026 50.9%Forecasters
40
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 12 hours ago
StaleSep 30, 24, 8:06 PM UTCJan 1, 50, 4:59 AM UTC
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KalshiRules
ARC-AGI began in 2019 as a grid-based reasoning benchmark (“v1”) intended to test whether AI can infer new rules from just a few examples rather than rely on pattern memorization.
- By the close of ARC Prize 2024, open-source solvers had plateaued around 53 % accuracy on the private set, while a high-compute run of OpenAI’s o3-preview model jumped to roughly 75 – 88 %, underscoring v1’s saturation.
- In response, the ARC Prize Foundation unveiled the harder, human-validated “ARC-AGI-2” (v2) on 24 March 2025 and launched the 2025 Kaggle contest with a compute cap of about US $0.42 per task.
- The headline rule remains unchanged: the first fully open-source system to reach ≥ 85 % on the private v2 evaluation set wins the $1 Million Grand Prize.
- This market tracks only the year in which ARC publicly awards that Grand Prize.
- Resolution Criteria
