PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probabilityNo IPO by December 31, 2026 82%Leader of 7 outcomes
Market quality
91 / 100
High quality24h Volume
$410.5
Liquidity
$77.2K
High liquidityBid / Ask
81.0% / 82.0%
Spread
1.2%
Tight spreadMarket data
Updated 3 minutes ago
Sep 23, 25, 12:22 AMDec 31, 26, 11:55 PM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
No IPO by December 31, 202682%
Compare venues· No IPO by December 31, 2026
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume
Also available on Manifold Markets
OpenAI closing market cap on IPO day?
2y
93.8%
89.2%
62.7%
+6 more outcomes
Community forecast10 forecastersType: multiple choice
MANIFOLD MARKETSAlso available on Polymarket
OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
1y
-0.7%32%
-0.1%16%
14%
+4 more outcomes
72 • Medium qualityModerate spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$70K
24h Vol$15.3
POLYMARKETRules
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
- If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
- Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency.
- It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
- If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
- Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Volume trend
$411Jul 221d of dataJul 22
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This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
- If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
- Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency.
- It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
- If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
- Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page.