PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
No IPO by December 31, 2026 93.9%Leader of 7 outcomesVig-adjusted: raw venue quotes summed above 100% and were normalized.
Market quality
83 / 100
High quality24h Volume
$10.5K
Liquidity
$206.4K
High liquiditySpread
1.0 pt
Tight spreadComments
0
7d Change
+7.5 pts
Market data
Updated 6 minutes ago
Sep 23, 25, 12:22 AMJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM
Trends
0%
0%
0%
Rules
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
- If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "the named outcome".
- Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency.
- It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
- If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
- Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page.
Prediction Source Comparison
- Also available on Manifold Markets — OpenAI closing market cap on IPO day? · 1 trillion or higher? 94%
- Also available on Polymarket — OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap · 1.5T+ 65%
