Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Jul 19, 2026, 6:40 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-2
Current community forecast
1 trillion or higher? 93.8%Leader of 9 outcomes
Forecasters
10
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 2 days ago
StaleJun 1, 26, 8:25 PMDec 31, 28, 11:59 PM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
1 trillion or higher?94%
Compare venues· 1 trillion or higher?
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume
Also available on Polymarket
OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
5mo
82%
-0.1%8%
4%
+4 more outcomes
91 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidity
Total Vol$2M
24h Vol$432.5
POLYMARKETAlso available on Polymarket
OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
1y
-1.2%32%
-0.1%16%
14%
+4 more outcomes
72 • Medium qualityModerate spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$70K
24h Vol$15.3
POLYMARKETRules
Resolves N/A if no IPO by end of 2028.
- This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
- Google finance will be the source.
- Example: 1.4 trillion or more means 1,400,000,000,000.00 or more
- Related market:
- (https://manifold.markets/embed/256/anthropic-closing-market-cap-on-ipo)
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Volume trend
$194Jul 182d of dataJul 19
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Resolves N/A if no IPO by end of 2028.
- This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
- Google finance will be the source.
- Example: 1.4 trillion or more means 1,400,000,000,000.00 or more
- Related market:
- (https://manifold.markets/embed/256/anthropic-closing-market-cap-on-ipo)