Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedData quality warningStale data
Data as of Jul 24, 2026, 12:20 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-2
Current community forecast1 trillion or higher? 90.3%Leader of 9 outcomes
Forecasters
19
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 2 days ago
StaleJun 1, 26, 8:24 PMDec 31, 28, 11:59 PM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
1 trillion or higher?90%
Compare venues· 1 trillion or higher?
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 PolymarketBest overall88% match · verified | Medium | 17% | — | $409.7 | $102.8K | 7 minutes ago | Open → |
| Polymarket85% match · linked | Medium | 43% | — | $142 | $65K | 7 minutes ago | Open → |
 Limitless85% match · linked | Low | 44% | — | $0 | $0 | 27 minutes ago | Open → |
| Manifold MarketsThis page | — | 90% | — | — | — | 2 days ago |
Also available on Polymarket
Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
0.2%1y
17%
17%
15%
+7 more outcomes
64 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidity
Total Vol$178.1K
24h Vol$409.7
POLYMARKETAlso available on Polymarket
Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap (Middle Brackets)
0.6%1y
43%
+1.5%19%
+0.1%18%
+4 more outcomes
56 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$217.7K
24h Vol$142
POLYMARKETAlso available on Limitless
Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap (Middle Brackets)
1y
43.5%
17.5%
17.4%
+4 more outcomes
32 • Low qualitySpread unknownLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$334.7
24h Vol$0
LIMITLESSRules
Resolves N/A if no IPO by end of 2028.
- This market will resolve based on Anthropic's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
- Google finance will be the source.
- Example: 1.4 trillion or more means 1,400,000,000,000.00 or more
- Related market:
- (https://manifold.markets/embed/256/openai-closing-market-cap-on-ipo-da)
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Volume trend
$90Jul 232d of dataJul 24
Related Markets
Anthropic IPO by __?
$20.6KDecember 31,: 72%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
$8.5KBefore Sep 1, 2026: 3%
KALSHI
KALSHI
Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
$4.7KSpaceX: 86%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKETWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
$3.2K↑$1.1T: 100%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
Will OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first?
$2.9KOpenAI: 18%KALSHI
KALSHI
Which companies will officially announce an IPO this year?
$2.3KDeepSeek: 8%KALSHI
KALSHIActive in these topics
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Resolves N/A if no IPO by end of 2028.
- This market will resolve based on Anthropic's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
- Google finance will be the source.
- Example: 1.4 trillion or more means 1,400,000,000,000.00 or more
- Related market:
- (https://manifold.markets/embed/256/openai-closing-market-cap-on-ipo-da)