Anthropic or OpenAI: higher IPO closing market cap?
0.5 pts (24h)ExchangeOne-OffAIRegulationEquitiesCorporate ActionsBusiness & Corporate2y
PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedData quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 27, 2026, 4:42 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Selected book midpoint
Anthropic · —
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Stored reference
Anthropic 77%
Anthropic 77%Market quality
35 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$25.3
Liquidity
$1.1K
Low liquidityOpen interest
$188.5
Bid / Ask
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AnthropicSpread
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Comments
0
7d Change
+8.0 pts
Market data
Updated 9 minutes ago
Aug 19, 26, 4:23 PM UTCJan 1, 29, 4:59 AM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
Venue terms
Source: Polymarket
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Minimum order (shares):
- 5
- Tick size:
- 1 percentage points
- Fees:
- Yes
Top holders
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Market depth · Anthropic
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Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Rules
This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if the official closing price for Anthropic's market capitalization on its first trading day is above the official closing price for OpenAI's market capitalization on its first trading day.
- This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if the official closing price for OpenAI's market capitalization on its first trading day is above the official closing price for Anthropic's market capitalization on its first trading day.
- This market will resolve to the company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, if the other company does not complete an IPO within the market timeframe.
- This market will resolve to the IPOed company as soon as it becomes impossible for the other company to complete an IPO within the market timeframe, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
- This market will resolve 50-50 if: - Neither IPO occurs by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET. - Both Anthropic and OpenAI complete an IPO within this market's timeframe, and their IPO closing market capitalizations are exactly equal. - Both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
- Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency.
