Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 99%
Forecasters
34
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 12 hours ago
StaleMar 29, 26, 5:44 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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PolymarketRules
Before betting, I recommend reading the scoring methodology page.
- It seems to be deliberately designed to produce lower scores: ARC-AGI-3 Scoring Methodology - ARC-AGI-3 Docs.
- Scoring is based on the official leaderboard.
- As of market creation, the top score is around 0.3%:
