What are the current odds for In what year will AI achieve a score of 95% or higher on the GSO benchmark??

Manifold Markets prices 2027 at 62.3% as of October 28, 2026.

In what year will AI achieve a score of 95% or higher on the GSO benchmark?

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Current community forecast

2027 62.3%

Leader of 8 outcomes

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Question type

multiple choice

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

7d Change

0.0 pts

Market data

Updated 34 minutes ago

Jul 13, 25, 6:02 PM UTCJan 1, 33, 11:59 PM UTC

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Rules

The GSO (Global Software Optimization) benchmark tests whether large-language-model agents can act like real performance engineers.

It extracts 102 optimisation tasks from the commit histories of 10 production code-bases spanning C, C++, Rust, Go, Java, and Python.
For each task the agent receives the full repo, a correctness test-suite, and a runtime profiler, then must submit a single patch that (i) keeps all tests green and (ii) reaches ≥ 95 % of the speed-up achieved by the human expert commit.
The headline metric, Opt @ 1, is simply the fraction of tasks cleared on the very first try; no retries, no cherry-picking.
All patches are rebuilt and timed in a sandbox so scores are reproducible and publicly displayed on the GSO leaderboard.
State of play (July 2025)