Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 90.9%
Forecasters
7
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 7 hours ago
StaleMar 28, 26, 4:17 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will any AI achieve a score of 25% on ARC-AGI-3 by the end of 2026?
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FutuurWhich company has best AI model end of 2026?
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PolymarketRules
Resolves YES if any AI model achieves a score above 95% on the ARC-AGI-2 benchmark by December 31, 2026.
- Resolution criteria:
- Score must be reported on the official ARC Prize leaderboard (arcprize.org) or in a peer-reviewed paper
- Must be ARC-AGI-2 specifically (not ARC-AGI-1 or other variants)
- Private/public leaderboard scores both count
- The model can use any approach (LLM, neuro-symbolic, program synthesis, etc.)
Open markets
AI
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $157.2K
- 24h Vol
- $119.4K
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+10.0pt60%
- 2027+2.0pt31.4%
- 2026+2.0pt8.6%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.7pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $10.6M
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-4.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $377.7K
- 24h Vol
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-2.5pt66%
- 1490+-9.0pt51%
- 1500+-3.5pt23%
+2 more outcomes
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will any AI model score above 95% on ARC-AGI-2 by end of 2026??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 91% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will any AI model score above 95% on ARC-AGI-2 by end of 2026? resolve?
- Will any AI model score above 95% on ARC-AGI-2 by end of 2026? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is Will any AI model score above 95% on ARC-AGI-2 by end of 2026? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves YES if any AI model achieves a score above 95% on the ARC-AGI-2 benchmark by December 31, 2026.