Current implied probability
At least 55% 87%+22.0%Leader of 9 outcomes
Market quality
68 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$1.7K
Liquidity
$8.8K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
85.0% / 89.0%
Spread
4.7%
Moderate spreadMarket data
Updated 11 minutes ago
May 20, 26, 2:00 PMDec 31, 26, 3:00 PM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
At least 55%87%
Volume trend
$1.7kJul 313d of dataJul 26
Related Markets
Highest score on Humanity's Last Exam before Dec 31, 2027?
$200At least 60%: 87%
KALSHI
KALSHI
Best AI at the end of 2026?
$18.1KClaude: 64%KALSHI
KALSHI
Will any AI model reach ___ Math Arena Score by December 31?
$12.1K1525: 100%
POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
Will any AI model reach ___ Coding Arena Score by December 31?
$4.9K1560: 42%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
Will AI solve one of 129 major mathematical conjectures before year X?
$1.5K2026: 0%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETS
Which AI company will have the best coding model at the end of 2026?
$1.3KMoonshot AI: 2%KALSHI
KALSHIActive in these topics
Related News
Coinbase Opens Payment Rails for AI Agents as Corporate Clients Accept Autonomous TransactionsBlockchain Reporter
Google Ships New Gemini Flash Models, But Pro Is Still MissingDecrypt
Google Is Building an AI Chip Just for Gemini—And Investors Already Moved On ItDecrypt
WhiteBIT Launches AI Hub: Trade, Monitor and Automate Through Your Favourite AI AssistantBlockchain Reporter
Over 95% of Coinbase’s code is now written with AICointelegraph
DeepSeek plots $71B IPO to challenge OpenAI in global AI raceCrypto NewsRules
If any language model achieves an accuracy of at least 50% on Humanity's Last Exam before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If any language model achieves an accuracy of at least 55% on Humanity's Last Exam before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If any language model achieves an accuracy of at least 60% on Humanity's Last Exam before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If any language model achieves an accuracy of at least 65% on Humanity's Last Exam before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If any language model achieves an accuracy of at least 70% on Humanity's Last Exam before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If any language model achieves an accuracy of at least 75% on Humanity's Last Exam before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.