Current implied probability
45%+ 66%+1.0%Leader of 5 outcomes
Market quality
79 / 100
High quality24h Volume
$2K
Liquidity
$15.6K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
65.0% / 66.0%
Spread
1.5%
Tight spreadMarket data
Updated 20 minutes ago
Jul 23, 26, 10:48 PMDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
45%+66%
Volume trend
$2.0kJul 243d of dataJul 26
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if any SpaceXAI Grok model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
- The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/.
- If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again.
- If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used.