PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedData quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 7:45 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Selected book midpoint
55%+ · —
Loading selected book…
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Stored reference
55%+ 74%Leader of 5 outcomes
55%+ 74%Market quality
43 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$4K
Liquidity
$2.3K
Low liquidityOpen interest
$10K
Bid / Ask
— / —
55%+Spread
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Comments
2
7d Change
-5.8 pts
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingJul 23, 26, 10:55 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
50%+Won
Venue terms
Source: Polymarket
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Minimum order (shares):
- 5
- Tick size:
- 1 percentage points
- Fees:
- Yes
Top holders
Loading top holders
Market depth · 55%+
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Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsRules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model published by OpenAI achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
- The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/.
- If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again.
- If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used.