Current implied probability
50%+ 81%+0.1ptLeader of 5 outcomes
Market quality
58 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$3K
Liquidity
$4.6K
Medium liquiditySpread
3.0 pt
Moderate spreadComments
0
7d Change
-1.5 pts
Market data
Updated 8 minutes ago
Jul 23, 26, 10:57 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
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Manifold MarketsRules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Google Gemini model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
- The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/.
- If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again.
- If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used.