Current implied probability
40%+ 89%Leader of 4 outcomes
Market quality
37 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$1.1K
Liquidity
$2K
Low liquiditySpread
23.0 pt
Wide spreadComments
0
7d Change
-8.0 pts
Market data
Updated 5 minutes ago
Jul 29, 26, 11:18 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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Manifold MarketsRules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results at https://agi.safe.ai/ has an HLE Accuracy of at least the specified percentage at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the site.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- If a model first appears on the site but is removed before 12:00 PM ET on the following calendar date, its appearance will not qualify as added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results.
- Any Gemini model labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview).
- Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
- Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.