Current implied probability
1480+ 85%-9.2ptLeader of 5 outcomes
Market quality
64 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$5.7K
Liquidity
$4.9K
Medium liquiditySpread
1.2 pt
Tight spreadComments
2
7d Change
-10.4 pts
Market data
Updated 10 minutes ago
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Next Google Gemini Pro Model: Humanity’s Last Exam Debut?
PolymarketNext Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
PolymarketNext Google Gemini Pro Model released on?
PolymarketWill Google Gemini hack a company during testing before the next Gemini Pro model gets released?
Manifold MarketsGemini 3.5 Pro debut arena score
KalshiNext Gemini Pro model release
KalshiRules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) has at least the specified score at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the leaderboard.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- Any Gemini model newly added to the leaderboard and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-2.5-pro, gemini-3-pro, or gemini-3.1-pro-preview).
- Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
- Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
- This market will resolve solely based on the specified score in the Score column of the leaderboard, regardless of any underlying granular or unrounded data presented elsewhere.
Open markets
AIKALSHIWhat will Trump say during The Ingraham Angle?
- Tariff99%
- AI / Artificial Intelligence99%
- Fake News99%
+24 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $109.6K
- 24h Vol
- $109.4K
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+6.2pt69.3%
- ChatGPT-6.4pt13.9%
- Gemini-0.4pt6.9%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $10.8M
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+1.5pt91%
- December 15,+4.5pt90%
- November 30,+5.5pt89%
+7 more outcomes
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+8.0pt89.4%
- Muse+1.0pt2.9%
- ChatGPT-9.0pt1.9%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $483K
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-64.6pt3%
- 1490+-39.9pt1%
- 1500+-25.4pt1%
+2 more outcomes
POLYMARKETAI lab announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- 2027-3.5pt85%
- 2026+5.5pt73%
- September 30, 2026-3.0pt39%
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- Which Millennium Prize Problem will AI solve next?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Anthropic market share this week
- DeepSeek market share this week
- Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by September 30?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Next Google Gemini Pro Model: Arena Debut??
- Polymarket prices 1480+ at 85% as of September 12, 2026.
- How is Next Google Gemini Pro Model: Arena Debut? settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) has at least the specified score at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the leaderboard.