Current implied probability
1480+ 87%-0.2%Leader of 5 outcomes
Market quality
61 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$9.2K
Liquidity
$19.5K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
37.0% / 45.0%
Spread
21.6%
Wide spread7d Change
+16.5%
Market data
Updated 13 minutes ago
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
1480+87%
Volume trend
$9.2kJul 226d of dataJul 27
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) has at least the specified score at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the leaderboard.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- Any Gemini model newly added to the leaderboard and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-2.5-pro, gemini-3-pro, or gemini-3.1-pro-preview).
- Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
- Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
- This market will resolve solely based on the specified score in the Score column of the leaderboard, regardless of any underlying granular or unrounded data presented elsewhere.