KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
above 1500 51%Leader of 7 outcomes
Market quality
40 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$1
Liquidity
$14K
Medium liquiditySpread
8.0 pt
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 5 minutes ago
Jun 25, 26, 10:30 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 3:00 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Next Google Gemini Pro Model: Humanity’s Last Exam Debut?
PolymarketWill any AI model reach ___ Coding Arena Score by December 31?
PolymarketWill any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by December 31?
PolymarketBy what factor will the cost per token of "Gemini 3 Pro equivalent" intelligence change this year?
Manifold MarketsWhen will Google release Gemini 3.5 pro?
Manifold MarketsGemini 3.5 Pro when???
Manifold MarketsRules
If A model called Gemini 3.5 Pro or greater scores the named outcome on Arena AI Text Score (Remove Style Control) Before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)
- Any Gemini model added to the leaderboard labeled as "Gemini 3.5 Pro" or greater will qualify.
- If multiple qualifying models are added, the highest scoring model will be used for resolution.
- Models added following the initial qualifying model will not count.
Open markets
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $157.2K
- 24h Vol
- $119.4K
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+10.0pt60%
- 2027+2.0pt31.4%
- 2026+2.0pt8.6%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.7pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $10.6M
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-4.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $377.7K
- 24h Vol
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-2.5pt66%
- 1490+-9.0pt51%
- 1500+-3.5pt23%
+2 more outcomes
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Gemini 3.5 Pro debut arena score?
- Kalshi prices above 1500 at 51% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Gemini 3.5 Pro debut arena score resolve?
- Gemini 3.5 Pro debut arena score is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is Gemini 3.5 Pro debut arena score settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If A model called Gemini 3.5 Pro or greater scores the named outcome on Arena AI Text Score (Remove Style Control) Before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.