KalshiCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedData quality warningNot meaningfully priced
Data as of Oct 21, 2026, 11:00 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Selected book midpoint
Above 550 · —
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Stored price
Above 600 53.5%Market line of 11 lines
Above 600 53.5%Market quality
36 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
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Open interest
$0
Open interest unknownBid / Ask
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Above 550Spread
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Market data
Updated 6 minutes ago
Oct 15, 26, 11:18 PM UTCNov 8, 26, 4:59 AM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
Venue terms
Source: Kalshi
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 30m (informational)
Market depth · Above 550
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Rules
If the Carbon Arc AI app downloads array index (October 2026) for October 2026 is above 600, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:Carbon Arc
- For purposes of this market, determination will resolve on the Carbon Arc AI Chat Apps Array value for the full month covered by this market, as recorded by Kalshi at 11:59 p.m. ET on the 7th calendar day after the end of that month. For example, the value for August is recorded at 11:59 p.m. ET on September 7th. Later corrections or revisions will not affect the recorded value. The reference is Carbon Arc's published full-month AI Chat Apps Array level: https://www.carbonarc.co/prisms?prism=7892a60d-ce75-4eba-98aa-460b93a4f33b. The array is the equally weighted arithmetic mean of its constituent year-over-year indices. At listing, its members are ChatGPT, Claude, Gemini and Grok, weighted 25% each. Each constituent index is 100 when its measured value equals the same month of the previous year; the array averages these indices. Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the underlying companies. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.
Rules for each outcome
- Above 550
- If the Carbon Arc AI app downloads array index (October 2026) for October 2026 is above 550, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 600
- If the Carbon Arc AI app downloads array index (October 2026) for October 2026 is above 600, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 650
- If the Carbon Arc AI app downloads array index (October 2026) for October 2026 is above 650, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 300
- If the Carbon Arc AI app downloads array index (October 2026) for October 2026 is above 300, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 350
- If the Carbon Arc AI app downloads array index (October 2026) for October 2026 is above 350, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 400
- If the Carbon Arc AI app downloads array index (October 2026) for October 2026 is above 400, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 450
- If the Carbon Arc AI app downloads array index (October 2026) for October 2026 is above 450, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 500
- If the Carbon Arc AI app downloads array index (October 2026) for October 2026 is above 500, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 700
- If the Carbon Arc AI app downloads array index (October 2026) for October 2026 is above 700, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 750
- If the Carbon Arc AI app downloads array index (October 2026) for October 2026 is above 750, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 800
- If the Carbon Arc AI app downloads array index (October 2026) for October 2026 is above 800, then the market resolves to Yes.
