KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
Before Dec 1, 2026 92%Leader of 7 outcomes
Market quality
50 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$226.3
Liquidity
$9.2K
Medium liquiditySpread
5.0 pt
Moderate spreadMarket data
Updated 8 minutes ago
Aug 24, 26, 9:15 PM UTCNov 1, 26, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
When will Google release Gemini 4?
KalshiNext Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
PolymarketNext Google Gemini Pro Model released on?
PolymarketNext Google Gemini Pro Model: Humanity’s Last Exam Debut?
PolymarketGemini 3.5 Pro debut arena score
KalshiBy what factor will the cost per token of "Gemini 3 Pro equivalent" intelligence change this year?
Manifold MarketsRules
If Google releases next Gemini Pro model the named outcome, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:Gemini
- Release must be to the public, outside of a closed beta, though limiting it to a high-cost subscription tier is acceptable.
Open markets
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $157.2K
- 24h Vol
- $119.4K
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+10.0pt60%
- 2027+2.0pt31.4%
- 2026+2.0pt8.6%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.7pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $10.6M
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-4.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $377.7K
- 24h Vol
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-2.5pt66%
- 1490+-9.0pt51%
- 1500+-3.5pt23%
+2 more outcomes
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Next Gemini Pro model release?
- Kalshi prices Before Dec 1, 2026 at 92% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Next Gemini Pro model release resolve?
- Next Gemini Pro model release is scheduled to resolve on November 1, 2026.
- How is Next Gemini Pro model release settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If Google releases next Gemini Pro model the named outcome, then the market resolves to Yes.