Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 28, 2026, 10:27 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Selected book midpoint
December 31 · —
Loading selected book…
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Stored reference
December 31 18%Leader of 26 outcomes
December 31 18%Market quality
32 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$384.1
Liquidity
$2.8K
Medium liquidityOpen interest
$59.1K
Bid / Ask
— / —
December 31Spread
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Comments
24
7d Change
+7.5 pts
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingJun 1, 26, 10:56 PM UTCNov 1, 26, 3:59 AM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
August 14Lost
Before close: 0% ·
August 21Lost
Before close: 0% ·
August 31Lost
Before close: 0% ·
August 7Lost
Before close: 0% ·
July 10Lost
July 17Lost
July 24Lost
July 27Lost
July 28Lost
July 29Lost
July 3Lost
July 30Lost
July 31Lost
Before close: 0% ·
June 12Lost
June 19Lost
June 26Lost
June 30Lost
Venue terms
Source: Polymarket
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Minimum order (shares):
- 5
- Tick size:
- 1 percentage points
- Fees:
- Yes
Top holders
Loading top holders
Market depth · December 31
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Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
When will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released?
PolymarketNext Google Gemini Pro Model: Arena Debut?
PolymarketNext Google Gemini Pro Model: Humanity’s Last Exam Debut?
PolymarketNext Gemini Pro Model released on?
PolymarketGemini 3.5 Pro debut arena score
KalshiGemini 3.5 Pro when???
Manifold MarketsRules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET).
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview).
- Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
- Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify
- A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups.
Prediction Source Comparison
- Also available on Kalshi — Next Gemini Pro model release · Before Dec 1, 2026 6%
