Current community forecast
No 88%
Forecasters
2
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 11 hours ago
StaleMay 13, 26, 4:12 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 8:00 AM UTC
Trends
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Manifold MarketsRules
This market resolves YES if, by 2026-12-31 23:59 PT, an official Microsoft source says that Microsoft Excel's Agent Mode, Copilot in Excel, or a direct renamed successor inside Excel supports selecting Google Gemini or a Gemini-family model to create, edit, analyze, or reason over workbooks.
- Qualifying official sources include Microsoft Support, the Microsoft 365 Blog, Microsoft Tech Community posts by Microsoft staff, Microsoft release notes, or Microsoft 365 admin/message-center documentation that is publicly visible or verifiably quoted.
- A public preview, Frontier feature, staged rollout, or commercial-only tenant feature counts if Microsoft says Gemini is selectable in Excel's agentic/Copilot workflow by the deadline.
- Resolves NO if Excel's agentic/Copilot workflow still only supports Microsoft/OpenAI/Anthropic models, or if Gemini support exists only in Google Workspace, third-party Excel add-ins, Copilot Studio agents outside Excel, generic Microsoft 365 Copilot chat outside Excel, leaks, rumors, or unaffiliated wrappers.
- A plan to add Gemini after the deadline is not enough unless Microsoft says support is available or rolling out by the deadline.
- Creation source check: Microsoft Support currently says Agent Mode in Excel uses the latest OpenAI models by default and lets subscribers switch to the latest Anthropic models using the model picker; a separate Microsoft Support page says Agent Mode in Excel supports Claude models.
