Will Google Gemini rank above ChatGPT in the App Store at EOY 2026?

Frequently asked questions

What are the current odds for Will Google Gemini rank above ChatGPT in the App Store at EOY 2026??

Manifold Markets prices No at 91.5% as of October 25, 2026.

When does Will Google Gemini rank above ChatGPT in the App Store at EOY 2026? resolve?

Will Google Gemini rank above ChatGPT in the App Store at EOY 2026? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.

How is Will Google Gemini rank above ChatGPT in the App Store at EOY 2026? settled?

Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves YES if Google Gemini ranks above ChatGPT in US Top Free Apps: https://apps.apple.com/us/charts/iphone/top-free-apps/36 at EOY 2026.

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KALSHI

Best AI at the end of 2026?

• Claude+3.8pt53.1%
• Gemini-3.5pt34.9%
• ChatGPT-1.2pt7.5%

+5 more outcomes

Total Vol

$15.4M

24h Vol

$82K

POLYMARKET

OpenAI announces bankruptcy by which date?

• 2029+1.0pt20%
• 2028+1.0pt16%
• 2027+1.0pt8%

KALSHI

When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?

• Before Apr 1, 2027+2.0pt92.5%
• Before Mar 1, 202791.5%
• Before Feb 1, 202788.5%

KALSHI

OpenRouter AI token usage in October

• Above 675T tokens88.5%
• Above 600T tokens50%
• Above 450T tokens99.5%

POLYMARKET

Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap

• $1.75–$2.0T+2.0pt30.7%
• $1.5–$1.75T-2.3pt18.8%
• $2.0–$2.25T-0.6pt16.8%

+7 more outcomes

POLYMARKET

OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?

• 2027-4.0pt56%
• 2026-1.5pt14%

+1 more outcomes

Total Vol

$1M

24h Vol

$46.7K

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