Will the first AI model that saturates Humanity's Last Exam be employable as a software engineer?
AIOne-Off3moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 80.7%
Forecasters
78
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 13 hours ago
StaleMar 17, 25, 11:31 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 7:59 AM UTC
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Manifold MarketsRules
Will the first AI model that receives a score of 75 or higher be capable (with an agent scaffolding) of replacing a software engineer?
- Resolves based on my personal judgement, in particular whether it is cost- and time-effective for ZeroPath to use it to replace one of our engineers (or accomplish the same amount with fewer people).
- Example tasks it should be capable of:
- "Fix this error we're getting on BetterStack."
- "Move our Redis cache from DigitalOcean to AWS."
- "Add and implement a cancellation feature for ZeroPath scans."
Open markets
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+3 more outcomes
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- $154.3K
- 24h Vol
- $116.6K
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
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+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
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+7 more outcomes
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+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
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- 24h Vol
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+2 more outcomes
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will the first AI model that saturates Humanity's Last Exam be employable as a software engineer??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 81% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will the first AI model that saturates Humanity's Last Exam be employable as a software engineer? resolve?
- Will the first AI model that saturates Humanity's Last Exam be employable as a software engineer? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is Will the first AI model that saturates Humanity's Last Exam be employable as a software engineer? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Will the first AI model that receives a score of 75 or higher be capable (with an agent scaffolding) of replacing a software engineer?