US Software Engineer Union at Meta, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, or Apple by end of 2026?
TechOne-Off2moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 86%
Forecasters
26
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 2 hours ago
StaleSep 23, 23, 6:16 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 6:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will the first AI model that saturates Humanity's Last Exam be employable as a software engineer?
Manifold MarketsWill Levels.fyi report that software engineer's salaries are lower in 2026 than they were in 2022?
Manifold MarketsWill the BLS show growth in software engineer employment through 2029?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a decline in software engineer salaries attributed to AI by the end of 2027?
Manifold MarketsUS software developer unemployment in 2027
KalshiBTC price on Oct 30, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
KalshiRules
This resolves YES if the National Labor Relations Board (or any successor organization) recognizes a union at Meta, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, or Apple by the end of 2026 that either:
- Primarily is a union of software engineers
- OR contains a majority of the software engineers employed at the company's headquarters
- OR contains a majority of the American software engineers employed by that company.
- If any of the mentioned companies merges with or is acquired by another company, the resulting combined company counts for the purposes of this market.
- If any of these companies divests a substantial portion of the company (>10% of employees), then the divested company also counts for purposes of this market.
