Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastBefore February 2027 93.4%Leader of 5 outcomes
Forecasters
15
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 16 minutes ago
Sep 1, 26, 6:13 PM UTCFeb 2, 27, 5:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Claude Fable 5.2+ (Anthropic) release date
Manifold MarketsWhat will Claude Fable's output token price hit in 2026?
PolymarketWhat will Claude Fable 5 score on ARC-AGI-3?
Manifold MarketsWill any model at least as good as Claude Fable 5 and 10x cheaper be released by the end of March 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill any model at least as good as Claude Fable 5 and 10x cheaper be released by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsClaude Fable 5.2+: Output Token Price Debut?
PolymarketRules
Claude Fable 5.1 released on September 1st, 2026.
- This market resolves YES when Anthropic's next Fable-class model is released to the public (e.g. Fable 5.2) This market will resolve YES even if the model's release is restricted to particular countries, as long as it is publicly available within those countries (a Glasswing situation would not count).
- If the model is not named Fable, it can still resolve YES if public statements from Anthropic indicate it is intended to be in the same line as Mythos/Fable, but new Opus/Sonnet/Haiku models would not cause this market to resolve YES, even if they were more capable then the current Fable 5 model.
- At the time of the model's release, all options that are correct will resolve YES.
- All options resolve NO if no such model is released by the end of January.
- I will resolve options as they become resolvable.
