KalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedSettled by the venue, market by market
Resolved: Sep 29, 2026, 2:50 PM
This event has no single winner. The venue settled each market separately; each market shows its own result.
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Sep 29, 2026, 2:46 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Probability Timeline
Above 67.5%10%
Above 70%2%
Above 77.5%2%
Above 75%14%
Above 72.5%1%
Above 80%0%
Above 82.5%0%
Above 85%2%
Above 87.5%3%
Above 77.5%Lost
Above 67.5%Lost
Above 70%Lost
Above 75%Lost
Above 72.5%Lost
Above 80%Lost
Above 82.5%Lost
Above 85%Lost
Above 87.5%Lost
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsRules
Archived event-level rules. The exact terms for each outcome are no longer available.
If the Open vs. Closed Token Volume (open weights share) for Sep 28, 2026 is above 67.5%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:Vercel AI Gateway Leaderboards
- This event resolves using the Open Weights percentage in Vercel AI Gateway's Open vs. Closed Token Volume chart.
- At 10:00 AM ET on Sep 29, 2026, Kalshi will use the chart's updated value for Sep 28, 2026.
- Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with Vercel.
- All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.
- If the Open vs. Closed Token Volume (open weights share) for Sep 28, 2026 is above 70%, then the market resolves to Yes.