Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 53.7%
Forecasters
20
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 15 hours ago
StaleApr 8, 25, 7:47 PM UTCDec 31, 30, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Top Open Source AI this week
KalshiWill the US and/or China ban at least two open-source AI models before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill an open-source AI model top the LMSYS Leaderboard at the end of 2026?
FutuurUS government bans an open source AI model in 2026?
PolymarketWill open-source AI win? (through 2028)
Manifold MarketsWill POTUS issue an executive order aiming to mitigate security risks associated with open-source AI models before 2027?
Manifold MarketsRules
Prediction #4 from: My Takeaways From AI 2027 - by Scott Alexander
Open markets
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+60.0pt71%
- claude-opus-5-max+1.0pt7%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $154.3K
- 24h Vol
- $116.6K
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+4.8pt60.8%
- ChatGPT+0.5pt25.5%
- Grok-3.4pt5.9%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $10.5M
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+1.0pt86%
- November 30,84%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+22.0pt62.2%
- 2027+11.0pt28.6%
- 2026+4.5pt9.2%
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+5.0pt80.4%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt12.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $374.6K
- 24h Vol
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-1.0pt66%
- 1490+-3.0pt51%
- 1500+-1.0pt30%
+2 more outcomes
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will open-source AI remain at least one year behind proprietary AI? (ACX, AI 2027 #4)?
- Manifold Markets prices No at 54% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will open-source AI remain at least one year behind proprietary AI? (ACX, AI 2027 #4) resolve?
- Will open-source AI remain at least one year behind proprietary AI? (ACX, AI 2027 #4) is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2030.
- How is Will open-source AI remain at least one year behind proprietary AI? (ACX, AI 2027 #4) settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Prediction #4 from: My Takeaways From AI 2027 - by Scott Alexander