PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probabilityNo 86.1%+0.0pt
Market quality
63 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$252.6
Liquidity
$2K
Low liquidityBid / Ask
13.0% / 14.0%
Spread
1.0 pt
Tight spread7d Change
-8.0 pts
Market data
Updated 5 minutes ago
Jul 14, 26, 2:14 AMDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Yes14%
Volume trend
$253Jul 1412d of dataJul 28
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This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US federal government passes legislation, issues an executive order, issues an export control, or takes any other formal action with the intent to ban distribution to, access for, or use of an open source AI model by the general public within the US, between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market resolves "No".
- “Open source AI model" refers to a general-purpose large language or multimodal foundation model whose weights and source are publicly downloadable and usable on user-controlled hardware (e.g., Llama, Mistral, DeepSeek, Qwen). "Source available" AI models will qualify regardless of any licensing restrictions on acceptable use.
- Narrow or special-purpose models (e.g., embedding, moderation, or single-modality media generation models) and deprecated, research-only, or preview-only models will not qualify.
- To qualify, a ban must target ordinary public access to the model across ordinary public channels within the US.
- A ban with the intention to remove access from a single channel is not sufficient.