Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 67%
Forecasters
8
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 15 hours ago
StaleJan 20, 26, 2:06 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will OpenAI release another open source LLM before end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill AI music generation have regressed between Halloween 2025 and 2026?
Manifold MarketsUS government bans an open source AI model in 2026?
PolymarketWill an open-source AI model top the LMSYS Leaderboard at the end of 2026?
FutuurWhen will an open-source LLM be released with a better performance than GPT-4?
Manifold MarketsTop Open Source AI this week
KalshiRules
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if Alibaba's research team (from any of their labs) officially open-sources a music generation AI model in 2026.
- The model must be released under an open license (something like Qwen) and weights made publicly available on platforms such as Hugging Face or ModelScope.
- Resolution will be verified through official Alibaba announcements, press releases, or documentation from these platforms.
- The model must be released on or before December 31, 2026.
Open markets
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+60.0pt71%
- claude-opus-5-max+1.0pt7%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $154.3K
- 24h Vol
- $116.6K
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+4.8pt60.8%
- ChatGPT+0.5pt25.5%
- Grok-3.4pt5.9%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $10.5M
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+1.0pt86%
- November 30,84%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+22.0pt62.2%
- 2027+11.0pt28.6%
- 2026+4.5pt9.2%
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+5.0pt80.4%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt12.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $374.6K
- 24h Vol
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-1.0pt66%
- 1490+-3.0pt51%
- 1500+-1.0pt30%
+2 more outcomes
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Alibaba release an open-source Music Generation AI model in 2026??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 67% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Alibaba release an open-source Music Generation AI model in 2026? resolve?
- Will Alibaba release an open-source Music Generation AI model in 2026? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is Will Alibaba release an open-source Music Generation AI model in 2026? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution criteria