Current implied probability
No 95%
Market quality
32 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$623.8
Low liquidityTraders
2
Comments
0
Market data
Updated 1 minute ago
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
US government bans an open source AI model in 2026?
PolymarketWill a chatbot from a Chinese company top the LMSYS leaderboard in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the US and/or China ban at least two open-source AI models before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill POTUS issue an executive order aiming to mitigate security risks associated with open-source AI models before 2027?
Manifold MarketsTop Open Source AI this week
KalshiOpen Source market share on Sep 10th
KalshiRules
Resolution criteria are not yet available for this market. Refresh cycles will populate this section when source rules are stored.
Open markets
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+60.0pt71%
- claude-opus-5-max+1.0pt7%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $154.3K
- 24h Vol
- $116.6K
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+4.8pt60.8%
- ChatGPT+0.5pt25.5%
- Grok-3.4pt5.9%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $10.5M
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+1.0pt86%
- November 30,84%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+22.0pt62.2%
- 2027+11.0pt28.6%
- 2026+4.5pt9.2%
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+5.0pt80.4%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt12.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $374.6K
- 24h Vol
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-1.0pt66%
- 1490+-3.0pt51%
- 1500+-1.0pt30%
+2 more outcomes
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will an open-source AI model top the LMSYS Leaderboard at the end of 2026??
- Futuur prices No at 95% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will an open-source AI model top the LMSYS Leaderboard at the end of 2026? resolve?
- Will an open-source AI model top the LMSYS Leaderboard at the end of 2026? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.