Current implied probability
No 95%
No 95%Market quality
32 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$623.8
Low liquidityTraders
2
Comments
0
Market data
Updated 1 minute ago
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsRules
This event predicts whether an open-source artificial intelligence model will rank first on the “Overall” leaderboard of the LMSYS Chatbot Arena at the end of December 31, 2026 (UTC-3).
- For this market, an open-source model means one whose model weights are freely available under a license permitting use, modification, and redistribution.
- The Primary Designated Source (PDS) will be the official LMSYS Chatbot Arena Leaderboard.
- If the model holding the number-one position on the LMSYS “Overall” leaderboard at the cutoff time is an open-source model, this market will resolve to "Yes".
- Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
- Subsequent leaderboard updates after the cutoff will not affect resolution.