Will POTUS issue an executive order aiming to mitigate security risks associated with open-source AI models before 2027?
AIOne-OffUS PoliticsRegulation3moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 71.9%
Forecasters
12
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 9 hours ago
StaleJul 20, 26, 8:05 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will the US and/or China ban at least two open-source AI models before 2027?
Manifold MarketsIn the US, will there be binding legislation or an executive order explicitly addressing AI risks by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsUS government bans an open source AI model in 2026?
PolymarketWill an open-source AI model top the LMSYS Leaderboard at the end of 2026?
FutuurSOAI#10: Trump issues an unconstitutional executive order to ban state AI legislation.
Manifold MarketsWill the U.S. enact an AI safety federal statute or executive order in 2026?
FutuurRules
Resolution criteria are not yet available for this market. Refresh cycles will populate this section when source rules are stored.
Open markets
AI
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+60.0pt71%
- claude-opus-5-max+1.0pt7%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $154.3K
- 24h Vol
- $116.6K
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+4.8pt60.8%
- ChatGPT+0.5pt25.5%
- Grok-3.4pt5.9%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $10.5M
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+1.0pt86%
- November 30,84%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+22.0pt62.2%
- 2027+11.0pt28.6%
- 2026+4.5pt9.2%
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+5.0pt80.4%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt12.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $374.6K
- 24h Vol
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-1.0pt66%
- 1490+-3.0pt51%
- 1500+-1.0pt30%
+2 more outcomes
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will POTUS issue an executive order aiming to mitigate security risks associated with open-source AI models before 2027??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 72% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will POTUS issue an executive order aiming to mitigate security risks associated with open-source AI models before 2027? resolve?
- Will POTUS issue an executive order aiming to mitigate security risks associated with open-source AI models before 2027? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.