Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Jul 17, 2026, 6:40 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-2
Current community forecast
Yes 84.5%
Forecasters
8
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 4 days ago
StaleSep 16, 24, 8:59 PMJan 2, 27, 7:59 AM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Yes85%
Volume trend
$360Jul 162d of dataJul 17
Related Markets
Best Chinese AI Company this week
$32.8KBaidu: 1%
KALSHI
KALSHIWho invades first: China (Taiwan) or U.S. (Greenland)?
$1.3KChina invades Taiwan first: 11.9%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETS
Will a Chinese company have a top ___ AI model by December 31?
$1.3K#10: 99%
POLYMARKET
POLYMARKETSOAI#8: A Chinese lab overtakes the US lab dominated frontier on a major leaderboard (e.g. LMArena/Artificial Analysis)
$50Yes: 27.8%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETSThird-Best Chinese AI Company end of August?
$4.5KOther: 50%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKETBest Chinese AI Company end of August?
$3KAlibaba: 59%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKETActive in these topics
Related News
Google Ships New Gemini Flash Models, But Pro Is Still MissingDecrypt
Google Is Building an AI Chip Just for Gemini—And Investors Already Moved On ItDecrypt
WhiteBIT Launches AI Hub: Trade, Monitor and Automate Through Your Favourite AI AssistantBlockchain Reporter
Over 95% of Coinbase’s code is now written with AICointelegraph
UN's First AI Safety Panel Says Scientists Can't Rule Out 'Catastrophic Harm'Decrypt
NVIDIA Explores RLVR for AI Agents with Nemotron 3 SuperBlockchain.NewsRules
Resolution criteria are not yet available for this market. Refresh cycles will populate this section when source rules are stored.