Current implied probability
#5 100%+61.3ptLeader of 4 outcomes
Market quality
≤49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$33.3K
High liquiditySpread
1.0 pt
Tight spreadComments
2
7d Change
-11.5 pts
Market data
Updated 7 minutes ago
Apr 2, 26, 9:57 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
100%
100%
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?
PolymarketWhich company has #1 AI model end of October? (Style Control On)
PolymarketA Chinese company will surpass Waymo in total global robotaxi fleet size in 2026
Manifold MarketsWill a chatbot from a Chinese company top the LMSYS leaderboard in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWhich company's AI will first hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?
PolymarketWhich companies will have a top-ranked AI model this year?
KalshiRules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a Chinese company owns the model that has the highest arena score, based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
- Chinese Companies include but are not limited to Alibaba, ByteDance, Baidu, Moonshot, Z.ai, DeepSeek, Meituan, Xiaomi, StepFun, Tencent, and MiniMax.
- Companies not headquartered in China or not primarily owned or operating within the Chinese technology ecosystem are not considered primarily Chinese.
- Models will be ranked by their arena score at the market’s check time.
- This market resolves to “Yes” only if a Chinese company’s model holds a strictly higher score than all others; ties will not qualify.
Prediction Source Comparison
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will a Chinese company have a top ___ AI model by December 31??
- Polymarket prices #5 at 100% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does Will a Chinese company have a top ___ AI model by December 31? resolve?
- Will a Chinese company have a top ___ AI model by December 31? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is Will a Chinese company have a top ___ AI model by December 31? settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: This market will resolve to "Yes" if a Chinese company owns the model that has the highest arena score, based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Where else is Will a Chinese company have a top ___ AI model by December 31? listed?
- The same question is also listed on Kalshi.