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  1. Prediction Markets
  2. AI
  3. Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31?
Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31?

Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31?

2.5% (24h)AITechYearly6mo
PolymarketPolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% fee
Current implied probability
Yes
Yes 6%-0.0%
Market quality

52 / 100

Medium quality
24h Volume

$2.2K

Liquidity

$11.7K

Medium liquidity
Bid / Ask

5.0% / 6.0%

Spread

20.0%

Wide spread
7d Change

-6.0%

Market data

Updated 1 minute ago

Apr 2, 26, 10:04 PMDec 31, 26, 12:00 AM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Selected outcome

Yes6%

Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a Chinese company owns the model that has the highest arena score, based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Polymarket
  • Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
  • Chinese Companies include but are not limited to Alibaba, ByteDance, Baidu, Moonshot, Z.ai, DeepSeek, Meituan, Xiaomi, StepFun, Tencent, and MiniMax.
  • Companies not headquartered in China or not primarily owned or operating within the Chinese technology ecosystem are not considered primarily Chinese.
  • Models will be ranked by their arena score at the market’s check time.
  • This market resolves to “Yes” only if a Chinese company’s model holds a strictly higher score than all others; ties will not qualify.

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Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a Chinese company owns the model that has the highest arena score, based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Polymarket
  • Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
  • Chinese Companies include but are not limited to Alibaba, ByteDance, Baidu, Moonshot, Z.ai, DeepSeek, Meituan, Xiaomi, StepFun, Tencent, and MiniMax.
  • Companies not headquartered in China or not primarily owned or operating within the Chinese technology ecosystem are not considered primarily Chinese.
  • Models will be ranked by their arena score at the market’s check time.
  • This market resolves to “Yes” only if a Chinese company’s model holds a strictly higher score than all others; ties will not qualify.