Current implied probability
Anthropic 44%-1.0ptLeader of 21 outcomes
Anthropic 44%-1.0ptMarket quality
58 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$56
Liquidity
$12.7K
Medium liquiditySpread
1.0 pt
Tight spreadComments
0
Market data
Updated 7 minutes ago
Oct 1, 26, 2:01 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Venue terms
Source: Polymarket
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Minimum order (shares):
- 5
- Tick size:
- 1 percentage points
- Fees:
- Yes
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Which company has #1 AI model end of October? (Style Control On)
PolymarketWhich company has #1 AI model end of November? (Style Control On)
Polymarket#2 AI Lab end of December? (Style Control On)
Polymarket#3 AI Lab end of December? (Style Control On)
PolymarketOctober 2026 AI model releases
Manifold MarketsWhich companies will have a top-ranked AI model this year?
KalshiRules
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
- Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
- Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
- Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time.
- If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard.
- If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”).