Current implied probability
Yes 17%-2.0%
Market quality
80 / 100
High quality24h Volume
$317.2
Liquidity
$38.3K
High liquidityBid / Ask
17.0% / 18.0%
Spread
5.9%
Moderate spreadMarket data
Updated 15 minutes ago
Jan 4, 26, 3:00 AMJan 1, 27, 3:00 PM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Yes17%
Compare venues· No
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 PolymarketBest overall82% match · verified | High | 97% | — | $764.1 | $38K | 15 minutes ago | Open → |
 KalshiThis page | High | 83% | — | $317.2 | $38.3K | 15 minutes ago |
Also available on Polymarket
Will a Chinese company have a top ___ AI model by December 31?
0.3%5mo
-0.3%97%
-2.0%43%
+0.5%21%
+1 more outcomes
91 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$104.1K
24h Vol$764.1
POLYMARKETRules
If a Chinese LLM is ranked as the top-ranked AI model before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- The model must be top-ranked, alone, on the Rank metric (unless multiple Chinese models are #1) to resolve the market to Yes.
- Important information: When checking the source for this market, check the 'Remove Style Control' toggle.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Volume trend
$317Jul 225d of dataJul 26
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If a Chinese LLM is ranked as the top-ranked AI model before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- The model must be top-ranked, alone, on the Rank metric (unless multiple Chinese models are #1) to resolve the market to Yes.
- Important information: When checking the source for this market, check the 'Remove Style Control' toggle.