KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
No 89%
Market quality
74 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$1.5K
Liquidity
$42.8K
High liquidityBid / Ask
9.0% / 11.0%
Spread
2.0 pt
Moderate spreadMarket data
Updated 4 minutes ago
Jan 4, 26, 3:00 AM UTCJan 1, 27, 3:00 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
US Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026?
PolymarketWill the next Millennium problem solved be solved by Chinese AI?
Manifold MarketsBest Chinese AI Company end of October?
PolymarketSecond-Best Chinese AI Company end of October?
PolymarketWhich companies will have a top-ranked AI model this year?
KalshiWill a publicly known AI model achieve an 80% time horizon of 3 weeks by April 2027?
Manifold MarketsRules
If a Chinese LLM is ranked as the top-ranked AI model before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Controls)
- The model must be top-ranked, alone, on the Rank metric (unless multiple Chinese models are #1) to resolve the market to Yes.
- Important information: When checking the source for this market, check the 'Remove Style Control' toggle.
Prediction Source Comparison
Open markets
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028-11.0pt62.4%
- 2027-3.5pt29.7%
- 2026-1.5pt7.9%
- Total Vol
- $280.7K
- 24h Vol
- $148.9K
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-2.0pt88%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,+1.0pt85%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-1.7pt58.8%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt23.5%
- Grok+2.3pt7.8%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $10.6M
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+1.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-max+3.0pt10%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking+1.0pt5%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027+5.0pt97%
- Before Jan 1, 2027+5.0pt96%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-1.0pt94%
+9 more outcomes
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+1.0pt80.6%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt10.2%
- Gemini+1.0pt2.8%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $406.5K
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- Tencent market share this week
- Anthropic market share this week
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- OpenAI market share this week
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- Most popular AI this week
- DeepSeek market share this week
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will a Chinese AI model be #1 this year??
- Kalshi prices No at 89% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does Will a Chinese AI model be #1 this year? resolve?
- Will a Chinese AI model be #1 this year? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is Will a Chinese AI model be #1 this year? settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If a Chinese LLM is ranked as the top-ranked AI model before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Where else is Will a Chinese AI model be #1 this year? listed?
- The same question is also listed on Polymarket.